The Irresolute Racial and Ethnic Composition of the U.S. Electorate

The upcoming 2020 presidential ballot has fatigued renewed attention to how demographic shifts beyond the The states have inverse the limerick of the electorate.

For this information essay, nosotros analyzed national and state-level shifts in the racial and ethnic makeup of the United states electorate betwixt 2000 and 2018, with a focus on primal battleground states in the upcoming 2020 election. The analysis is primarily based on data from the U.Due south. Census Bureau's American Community Survey and the 2000 U.S. decennial demography provided through Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS) from the University of Minnesota.

See here to read the information essay's methodology for further details on our information sources.

Eligible voters refer to persons ages 18 and older who are U.South. citizens. They make upward thevoting-eligible population orelectorate. The termseligible voters,voting eligible,the electorate andvoters are used interchangeably in this report.

Registered voters are eligible voters who have completed all the documentations necessary to vote in an upcoming election.

Voter turnout refers to the number of people who say they voted in a given ballot.

Voter turnout charge per unit refers to the share of eligible voters who say they voted in a given election.

Naturalized citizensare lawful permanent residents who accept fulfilled the length of stay and other requirements to become U.Southward. citizens and who have taken the adjuration of citizenship.

The termsLatino andHispanic are used interchangeably in this report. Hispanics are of any race.

References toAsians,Blacks andWhites are single-race and refer to the non-Hispanic components of those populations.

Battleground states include Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. These states were identified by Pew Inquiry Center using ratings from a variety of sources, see the methodology for more details.

In all 50 states, the share of non-Hispanic White eligible voters declined between 2000 and 2018, with 10 states experiencing double-digit drops in the share of White eligible voters. During that aforementioned period, Hispanic voters accept come to make upward increasingly larger shares of the electorate in every state. These gains are particularly large in the Southwestern U.S., where states like Nevada, California and Texas accept seen rapid growth in the Hispanic share of the electorate over an 18-year period.1

These trends are also peculiarly notable in battleground states – such every bit Florida and Arizona – that are likely to be crucial in deciding the 2020 election.ii In Florida, two-in-10 eligible voters in 2018 were Hispanic, nearly double the share in 2000. And in the emerging battlefield state of Arizona, Hispanic adults fabricated up well-nigh one-quarter (24%) of all eligible voters in 2018, up 8 percentage points since 2000.

To be sure, the demographic composition of an area does non tell the whole story. Patterns in voter registration and voter turnout vary widely by race and ethnicity, with White adults historically more than likely to be registered to vote and to turn out to vote than other racial and ethnic groups. Additionally, every presidential election brings its own unique set up of circumstances, from the personal characteristics of the candidates, to the economy, to historic events such as a global pandemic. However, agreement the changing racial and ethnic composition in primal states helps to provide clues for how political winds may shift over time.

Black, Hispanic and Asian registered voters historically lean Democratic

The ways in which these demographic shifts might shape electoral outcomes are closely linked to the distinct partisan preferences of different racial and ethnic groups. Pew Research Center survey data spanning more than two decades shows that the Democratic Party maintains a wide and long-standing reward among Black, Hispanic and Asian American registered voters.3 Among White voters, the partisan balance has been generally stable over the past decade, with the Republican Party holding a slight advantage.

All major racial and ethnic voter groups lean Democratic, except Whites

National exit polling data tells a similar story to partisan identification, with White voters showing a slight and fairly consistent preference toward Republican candidates in presidential elections over the concluding forty years, while Black voters have solidly supported the Democratic contenders. Hispanic voters accept besides historically been more than probable to back up Democrats than Republican candidates, though their back up has not been every bit consistent as that of Blackness voters.4

These racial and ethnic groups are by no ways monolithic. There is a rich diverseness of views and experiences within these groups, sometimes varying based on land of origin. For case, Pew Research Heart's 2018 National Survey of Latinos constitute that Hispanic eligible voters of Puerto Rican and/or Mexican descent – regardless of voter registration status – were more likely than those of Cuban descent to place as Democrats or lean toward the Democratic Political party (65% of Puerto Rican Americans and 59% of Mexican Americans vs. 37% of Cuban Americans identified equally Democrats). A majority of Cuban eligible voters identified equally or leaned toward the Republican Party (57%).

Among Asian American registered voters, in that location are also some differences in party identification by origin group. For instance, Vietnamese Americans are more probable than Asians overall to place as Republican, while the opposite is true among Indian Americans, who tend to lean more Democratic.

Higher voter turnout among White and Black voters in presidential elections

Given these differences within racial and indigenous groups, the relative share of different origin groups within a specific state can bear upon the partisan leanings of that state's electorate. For case, in Florida, Republican-leaning Cubans had historically been the largest Hispanic origin grouping. However, over the by decade, the more Democratic-leaning Puerto Ricans take been the state's fastest-growing Hispanic-origin group, and they now rival Cubans in size. At the same time, in states similar California and Nevada, Mexican Americans, who tend to lean Democratic, are the dominant Hispanic origin group.

Partisan alignment does non tell the whole story when it comes to voting patterns. Voter turnout rates – or the share of U.S. citizens ages 18 and older who cast a election – too vary widely across racial and ethnic groups. White adults historically have had the highest charge per unit of voter turnout: About 2-thirds of eligible White adults (65%) voted in the 2016 election. Blackness adults have likewise historically had relatively high rates of voter turnout, though typically slightly lower than White adults. There was an exception to this pattern in 2008 and 2012, when Black voter turnout matched or exceeded that of Whites. By contrast, Asian and Hispanic adults have had historically lower voter turnout rates, with about half reporting that they voted in 2016.

White and Black adults are as well more likely than Hispanic and Asian adults to say that they are registered to vote.

Not-White eligible voters accounted for more than three-quarters of total U.S. electorate growth since 2000

The non-White voting population has played a large role in driving growth in the nation'south electorate. From 2000 to 2018, the nation's eligible voter population grew from 193.4 million to 233.7 1000000 – an increase of twoscore.three million. Voters who are Hispanic, Black, Asian or another race or ethnicity deemed for more three-quarters (76%) of this growth.

Most of the growth in the electorate since 2000 has come from Hispanic, Black and Asian eligible voters

The substantial per centum point increase of voters who are not White every bit a share of the land'southward overall electorate was largely driven by 2nd-generation Americans – the U.S.-born children of immigrants – coming of age, likewise as immigrants naturalizing and becoming eligible to vote. The increase has been steady over the past 18 years – from 2000 to 2010, their share rose by 4 percent points (from 24% to 28%), while from 2010 to 2018, their share further grew by v points (upwards from 28% to 33%).

Hispanic eligible voters were notably the largest contributors to the electorate'due south rise. They alone deemed for 39% of the overall increase of the nation's eligible voting population. Hispanic voters made up thirteen% of the land'south overall electorate in 2018 – nearly doubling from 7% in 2000. The population's share grew steadily since 2000, with similar pct point growth observed between 2000 and 2010 (three points) and 2010 and 2018 (3 points).

The Hispanic electorate'due south growth primarily stemmed from their U.S.-built-in population coming of historic period. The 12.iv million Hispanics who turned eighteen between 2000 and 2018 accounted for eighty% of the growth among the population'due south eligible voters during those years. The group'southward sustained growth over the past 2 decades will make Hispanics the projected largest minority group among U.Southward. eligible voters in 2020 for the commencement time in a presidential ballot.

Asian eligible voters also saw a significant rise in their numbers, increasing from 4.half dozen million in 2000 to 10.3 million in 2018. And similar to Hispanics, their nearly two-decade growth has been relatively consistent. The population'south share in the electorate grew at like rates from 2000 to 2010 and from 2010 to 2018 (i bespeak each). In 2018, Asian eligible voters fabricated up four% of the nation's electorate (upwardly from 2% in 2000), the smallest share out of all major racial and ethnic groups. Naturalized immigrants – a group that makes up two-thirds of the Asian American electorate – are the chief driver of the Asian electorate'south growth. From 2000 to 2018, the number of naturalized Asian immigrant voters more than doubled – from 3.iii million to half-dozen.9 million – and their growth alone accounted for 64% of the overall growth in the Asian electorate.

Despite notable growth in the not-White eligible voter population, non-Hispanic White voters nevertheless fabricated up the large majority (67%) of the U.S. electorate in 2018. However, they saw the smallest growth rate out of all racial ethnic groups from 2000 to 2018, causing their share to shrink past near 10 percentage points.

Shares of non-Hispanic White eligible voters take declined in all 50 states

The overall reject in the shares of the not-Hispanic White eligible voter population can be observed across all states. (There hasn't been a decline in the District of Columbia.) While this tendency is not new, information technology is playing out to varying degrees across the land, with some states experiencing particularly significant shifts in the racial and ethnic composition of their electorate.

In full between 2000 and 2018, 10 states saw a 10 percentage indicate or greater decline in the share of White eligible voters. In Nevada, the White share of the electorate fell 18 percentage points over nearly two decades, the largest drop among all 50 states. The refuse in the White share of the electorate in Nevada has been adequately steady, with a comparable percentage point reject observed between 2000 and 2010 (10 points) and 2010 and 2018 (8 points). California has experienced a similarly precipitous turn down in the White share of the electorate, dropping 15 percent points since 2000. This has resulted in California changing from a majority White electorate in 2000 to a state where White voters were a minority share of the electorate in 2018 (60% in 2000 to 45% in 2018), though they still are the largest racial or ethnic grouping in the electorate.

Latinos vote at a polling station in Los Angeles. (David McNew/Getty Images)
Latinos vote at a polling station in Los Angeles. (David McNew/Getty Images)

Even with declines in all 50 states, White eligible voters withal make upward the bulk of virtually states' electorates. In 47 states, over half of eligible voters are White. The only exceptions are California, New Mexico and Hawaii, where White voters account for 45%, 43% and 25% of each respective state's electorate.

Equally reflected on the national level, Hispanic eligible voters have been the primary drivers of the racial and ethnic diversification of well-nigh states' electorates. In 39 states between 2000 and 2018, Hispanic eligible voters saw the largest pct indicate increment compared with any other racial or ethnic grouping. In three additional states – Alaska, Kentucky and Ohio – Hispanic voters were tied with another racial grouping for the highest increase. Five states that observed the largest growth in Hispanic shares in their electorates were California (11 pct points), Nevada (10 points), Florida (nine points), Arizona (viii points) and Texas (8 points).

The number of Black eligible voters nationwide grew only slightly in the past 18 years. Notwithstanding, Black voters saw the largest percentage indicate increment out of any other racial and ethnic group in three states in the Southeast: Georgia (v points), Delaware (4 points) and Mississippi (4 points).

As for Asian eligible voters, they saw robust growth in California (5 percent points), Nevada and New Jersey (4 points each) between 2000 and 2018. Nevertheless, their share increases paled in comparison to the Hispanic electorate'due south growth in those states. Overall, Asians saw their shares increment in the electorates of every state except Hawaii, where their share dropped by 4 pct points. Still, Hawaii has the highest pct of Asians in its electorate – 38% of all eligible voters in the state are Asian.

Racial and ethnic alter among eligible voters in battlefield states

As the 2020 presidential election draws near, these demographic shifts are particularly notable in some key battleground states, where changes in the limerick of the electorate could accept an bear on on electoral outcomes.5

Pace of racial and ethnic change varies widely across key battleground states

Nationally, Florida and Arizona saw the third- and 4th-largest declines in the shares of non-Hispanic White eligible voters. The White shares of the electorate in those states each stood at about six-in-ten in 2018, down from about three-quarters at the start of the century. Iv other battleground states – Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Michigan – as well saw declines in the share of White eligible voters between 2000 and 2018, though to a lesser extent.

In Florida, a state that has been pivotal to every U.Southward. presidential victory in the terminal xx years, the White share of the electorate has fallen 13 per centum points since 2000. At the same fourth dimension, the Hispanic share of the electorate has gone up 9 points, rising from 11% of eligible Florida voters in 2000 to 20% in 2018. During this same period, the Black share of the electorate in Florida has increased 2 percent points and the Asian share has increased past 1 point.

Arizona, largely seen as an emerging battleground state, has seen substantial change to the racial and ethnic composition of its electorate. Hispanic adults now make up almost one-quarter of all eligible voters (24%), an viii-point increase since 2000.

Several battleground states have seen smaller – though withal potentially meaningful – changes to the demographic composition of the electorate. In Pennsylvania, the White share of the electorate cruel 7 percentage points while the Hispanic share of the electorate rose three points from 2000 to 2018. And in Northward Carolina, a state that voted for Donald Trump in 2016 and previously went for Barack Obama, George W. Bush-league and Neb Clinton, the White share of the electorate fell from 75% in 2000 to 69% in 2018. During the same fourth dimension period, the Hispanic share of the electorate rose to iv% (up three points since 2000) and the Blackness share of the electorate rose to 22% (upward 1 point since 2000).

Demographic changes could continue to reshape the electoral landscape in future elections. While Texas is not currently considered a battleground land, demographic shifts have led some to wonder if the state could get more competitive politically down the route. In 2018, iii-in-ten eligible voters in Texas were Hispanic – that's upwardly 8 per centum points since 2000. During that same time, the share of White eligible voters in Texas fell 12 points, from 62% in 2000 to a bare bulk (51%) in 2018.